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Population-level effects on crime of recovering firearms from armed prohibited persons: intention-to-treat analysis of a pragmatic cluster-randomised trial in California cities

Background

Too little is known about the effectiveness of efforts to prevent firearm violence. We evaluated California’s Armed and Prohibited Persons System (APPS), which identifies legal purchasers of firearms who have become prohibited persons and seeks to recover all firearms and ammunition to which they have access.

Design and methods

This cluster-randomised pragmatic trial was made possible by APPS’s expansion from a small pilot to a continuing statewide programme. We included 363 California cities, allocated to early (n=187) or later (n=176) intervention in blocks stratified by region within the state, and within region by population and violent crime rate. The study period began 1 February 2015; region-specific end dates ranged from 1 May 2015 to 1 February 2016. Analysis was on an intention-to-treat, difference-in-difference basis using generalised linear mixed models and generalised estimating equations with robust SEs. The population-level primary outcome measures were monthly city-level counts of firearm-related homicides, robberies and aggravated assaults. The primary model was adjusted for stratification variables; city-level population, population density, socioeconomic status and firearm purchasing; year; and month.

Findings

Allocation groups were well balanced on baseline characteristics and implementation measures. In adjusted models, allocation to early intervention was not associated with statistically significant differences in any primary outcome measure; these findings were robust to multiple sensitivity analyses. There was some heterogeneity across regions.

Conclusions

The APPS intervention directly affects a very small percentage of the population, limiting its potential for population-level effects. Individual-level analyses may provide a better estimate of the intervention’s effectiveness.

Trial registration number

NCT02318732.

Firearm-related threats before migrating to the USA from Latin America and the Caribbean

Background

Every year, thousands of people from Latin America and the Caribbean are migrating to the USA. Policy-makers have argued that US firearms are fuelling violence in these countries and are contributing to migration. The objective of this article is to examine the proportion of immigrants from Latin America and the Caribbean arriving at the US border who have previously been threatened with a firearm. This article further explores sociodemographic factors associated with the likelihood of previous firearm-related threats, whether those threats are associated with post-traumatic stress disorder, as well as the reasons behind those threats.

Methods

Data were obtained from a survey of migrants recruited at the southern US border from March 2022 to August 2023. To be selected, respondents had to be 18 years of age or older, had to speak English or Spanish and come from a Latin American or Caribbean country. We used descriptive statistics and a logistic regression.

Results

We analysed 321 cases. Roughly, 48% of respondents reported previous firearm-related threats. Males and respondents coming from Honduras, Venezuela and El Salvador were more likely to report previous firearm-related threats. There was a strong association between previous firearm-related threats and signs of post-traumatic stress disorder. Most threats occurred during robberies or extortions, but other threats were perpetrated by authorities, to prevent crime reporting, or by intimate partners.

Conclusion

Understanding the violence, particularly firearm-related violence, experienced by those migrating to the USA from Latin America and the Caribbean could help guide policy discussion and actions.

Firearm death in US vs other countries

Gun violence in the US is the leading cause of death among children and teenagers, drives down life expectancy, and cost the economy around $557bn in 2022, says a report from the Commonwealth Fund, a non-profit organisation that researches healthcare issues and promotes improved quality and efficiency in healthcare.1The study used data from the global burden of disease study from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle.Mass shootings in the US get much media attention but represent less than 2% of gun deaths in the US, the report says. Mass shootings are those in which four or more people are shot or killed, excluding the shooter. There were 656 mass shootings in the US in 2023, reports the Gun Violence Archive,2 and at least 385 so far this year.An earlier Commonwealth Fund study showed that in 2019 the US had 10.4 deaths per…

Underground Gun Markets

This paper provides an economic analysis of underground gun markets drawing on interviews with gang members, gun dealers, professional thieves, prostitutes, police, public school security guards, and teens in the city of Chicago, complemented by results from government surveys of recent arrestees in 22 cities plus administrative data for suicides, homicides, robberies, arrests and confiscated crime guns. We find evidence of considerable friction in the underground market for guns in Chicago. We argue that these frictions are due primarily to the fact that the underground gun market is both illegal and “thin” — the number of buyers, sellers, and total transactions is small, and relevant information is scarce. Gangs can help overcome these market frictions, but the gang’s economic interests cause gang leaders to limit supply primarily to gang members, and even then, transactions are usually loans or rentals with strings attached.

Gun Theft and Crime

Some law enforcement officials and other observers have asserted that theft is the primary source of guns to crime. In fact, the role of theft in supplying the guns used in robbery, assault, and murder is unknown, and current evidence provides little guidance about whether an effective program to reduce gun theft would reduce gun violence. The current article analyzes publicly available national data on gun theft and a unique Chicago data set. The results tend to support the conclusion that stolen guns play only a minor role in crime. First, publicly available data are used to calculate that thefts are only about 1% of all gun transactions nationwide. Second, an analysis of original data from Chicago demonstrates that less than 3% of crime guns recovered by the police have been reported stolen to the Chicago Police Department (CPD). If a gun is reported stolen, there is a 20% chance that it will be recovered, usually in conjunction with an arrest for illegal carrying. Less than half of those picked up with a stolen gun have a criminal record that includes violent offenses. Third, results from surveys of convicted criminals, both nationally and in Chicago, suggest that it is rare for respondents to have stolen the gun used in their most recent crime. The data on which these results are based have various shortcomings. A proposed research agenda would provide more certainty about the role of theft.

Interpreting the Empirical Evidence on Illegal Gun Market Dynamics

Thousands of Americans are killed by gunfire each year, and hundreds of thousands more are injured or threatened with guns in robberies and assaults. The burden of gun violence in urban areas is particularly high. Critics suggest that the results of firearm trace data and gun trafficking investigation studies cannot be used to understand the illegal supply of guns to criminals and, therefore, that regulatory and enforcement efforts designed to disrupt illegal firearms markets are futile in addressing criminal access to firearms. In this paper, we present new data to address three key arguments used by skeptics to undermine research on illegal gun market dynamics. We find that criminals rely upon a diverse set of illegal diversion pathways to acquire guns, gun traffickers usually divert small numbers of guns, newer guns are diverted through close-to-retail diversions from legal firearms commerce, and that a diverse set of gun trafficking indicators are needed to identify and shut down gun trafficking pathways.

The Last Link: from Gun Acquisition to Criminal Use

Guns that are used in crime and recovered by the police typically have changed hands often since first retail sale and are quite old. While there is an extensive literature on “time to crime” for guns, defined as the elapsed time from first retail sale to known use in a crime, there is little information available on the duration of the “last link”—the elapsed time from the transaction that actually provided the offender with the gun in question. In this article, we use data from the new Chicago Inmate Survey (CIS) to estimate the duration of the last link. The median is just 2 months. Many of the gun-involved respondents to the CIS (42%) did not have any gun 6 months prior to their arrest for the current crime. The CIS respondents were almost all barred from purchasing a gun from a gun store because of their prior criminal record—as a result, their guns were obtained by illegal transactions with friends, relatives, and the underground market. We conclude that more effective enforcement of the laws governing gun transactions may have a quick and pervasive effect on gun use in crime.